Tampa Weather

Marine Data

Below you'll find the latest marine forecast for our area. This forecast updates daily.
 

Forecast


marine weather discussion for N Atlantic Ocean
NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC
232 am EST Thu Nov 23 2017


.Forecast discussion...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.Weather for the North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.


The latest GOES satellite imagery, observations and preliminary
06z opc-NCEP surface analysis shows a deepening 990 mb low over
central Nova Scotia moving NE away from the offshore waters with
high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley moving E. An ascat
overpass from last evening indicated gale force winds moving E
from the far NE nt2 and eastern nt1 waters associated with the
deepening low. The threat for gales over the offshore waters is
expected to remain rather low for the next 3-5 days.


Over the short term, the 00z models are in very good agreement
over the region today with a high pressure area building E into
the offshore waters as the low mentioned above tracks NE away
from the region. A low currently over the NE Gulf of Mexico will
move E and NE over the next few days, and allow conditions to
deteriorate over southern nt2 waters by tonight. For today, we
will stay close to the 00z GFS guidance, and use the smart tool
which places the higher first sigma layer winds over the
unstable areas, and slightly lower 10 meter winds over the
stable locations. For tonight through sun, we will then trend
the forecast more toward the 00z ECMWF guidance as it is quite
similar to the 12z Wed ECMWF that was used for the previous
package. This will also maintain continuity as the GFS remains
rather unstable at this time, beyond today. Therefore, we still
expect low pressure to move into the far southern nt2 waters
later tonight into Fri, continue organizing over the se nt2
waters Fri night, and then pass just E of the central and
northern nt2 waters Sat. A moderate to strong cold front will
approach the waters from the W and NW Sat. Any gales that
develop with the low are expected to remain E of the offshore
waters at this time, with chances for gales over the offshore
waters not high enough to add to the forecast at this time.
There will be an increasing threat for thunderstorms mainly over
southern nt2 waters tonight into Fri night, with local wind
gusts near or exceeding gale force and rough seas possible in
and near of the heavier thunderstorms. The low will then lift NE
away from the waters Sat night into sun as the cold front
crosses the waters from NW to se, with cold air advection
beginning over the waters at that time. High pressure will then
begin to slowly build E toward the area during sun.


Over the medium range, we see no need to deviate too much from
the 00z ECMWF guidance for Sun night through Mon night over the
region, with the 00z ECMWF remaining quite consistent. The high
will slowly overspread the waters from W to E Sun night through
Mon night with improving conditions likely over the region. Any
gales associated with the rather strong cold air advection will
likely remain E of the nt1, and northern nt2, waters Sun night
into Mon evening.


Seas...once again the 00z ECMWF wam appears to have initialized
slightly better when compared to the current data over the
offshore waters. In order to fit the sea heights forecast with
the wind forecast will we stay fairly close to the 00z ECMWF wam
through Mon night over the region, which will tend to result in
little change from the past few forecasts. We will make only a
few manual adjustments to fit sea height grids to initial
conditions, and to fit with nearby coastal WFO and TAFB grids.


.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.


.Warnings...Preliminary.


.Nt1 New England waters...
None.


.Nt2 mid-Atlantic waters...
None.


$$


.Forecaster Mills. Ocean prediction center.


 

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